🔗 Share this article

Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It often serves as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or just the greatest surprise.

However this year's competition is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent division champions falling away and longtime underperformers rising collectively. Under an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and fun year, he's facing five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still